The PGA tour heads to Mexico this week with a strong field for the WGC. 49 of the world's top 50 are playing. It seems the tour took a position on the US Election last year moving this tournament from the Trump owned Doral course and playing it in Mexico .It is a tough week to judge with no course history and little known about how the course will play. For that reason slightly lower stakes than normal are advised.
The course sits at a very high altitude meaning the ball will travel further and may make the course play very short. With Poa Annua greens in play World Number 1 Dustin Johnson rightly leads the betting @ 7/1 but we will be looking at slightly higher prices this week.
Sergio Garcia E/W @ 28/1
Sergio has an excellent record at altitude. He lives in the Swiss Alps where the Omega European Masters -1 of the highest altitude golf tournaments- is played. He is a former winner there and also has 4 top 6 finishes in 5 tries. His form is excellent and he's already won this year at the Dubai Desert Classic. Last week he struck the ball excellently, ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee(SG:OTT) and 4th in Strokes Gaines Tee to Green(SG:T2G). The problem, as often is the case with Sergio, was on the greens where he lost 2 shots to the field. Bermudagrass is his least favoured surface so hopefully he can fare better this week. Never the best putter on any greens, Segio's ball striking form will keep him in contention and if he can hold his own on the greens looks a good selection here.
Jimmy Walker E/W @ 70/1 Betfred
The PGA Champion is coming off 2 solid weeks and will hope to further improve here. With the course likely to play short, accurate short-iron and wedge play becomes all the more important. Jimmy has been in the top 20 in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards in each of the last 2 years including 8th last year. That combined with his excellent putting should provide a number of birdie opportunities. The issue for Jimmy is his accuracy off the tee. Wayward drives will be punished on this tree-lined course so he will have to perform well here and perhaps club down to ensure he hits fairways. Despite being a long hitter he has played some of his best golf at short courses.A major champion last year can win vs these strong fields and has the game to contend @ 70/1.
JB Holmes E/W @ 100/1
JB is another who has performed well at altitude in the past. Sometimes it seems JB Holmes is mis-cast as someone who can only do well at bombers courses so can get overlooked on shorter tracks. He is excellent with short-irons and wedges which should help him this week. JB has a lot of 20th-30th position finishes in recent months. He can put great stretches of play together but always seems to have 1 bad round per tournament. Sometimes his aggressiveness gets the better of him but hopefully that can work in his favour this week. The key will be avoiding the big numbers. If he can do that for the most part, he looks good value @ 100/1