Newcastle v West Ham, 5th July 2020

PARRIS BARRON

My second selection this weekend, at odds of 1.73 is  West Ham +0.25 Asian goals v Newcastle. A draw means a half win and I’d like to keep that onside.

The main reason I’m betting this is because Newcastle are the biggest over performers on my own metrics. If I look at the places they have their shots, where they concede them, and the decisions they make in the final third, I just can’t get them onside. They are a -4.3 on my own proprietary ratings, which is awful.

I don’t think either side would feel too hard done by if the game was a draw so it’s not a game I’m expecting to be open from the off. Recency bias may dictate that some punters want to get goals in Newcastle games onside but they only scored 1 against a porous Aston Villa and it wasn't until John Egan was sent off that they scored against Sheffield United. The game against Bournemouth was a must win for the Cherries, so it was inevitable that chances would come.
David Moyes has had enough time for his beliefs t be instilled into the players at West Ham It’s whether they buy into his magnerial philosophy or not. Luckily he’s got a good captain in Mark Noble who will be a role model in that dressing room and be a great conduit for Moyes.

They’ve got Fabianski back who is one of the best keepers in the league. Antonio is a menace up top, but only worry is goals for him and the team. But if the Hammers do get an early strike, I can see them getting a few due to  Newcastle needing to come out and attack more, knowing they can afford a cavalier attitude with Premiership football guaranteed for next season. Of course, we’re going to need Ryan Fredricks to have a very good game against Saint Maximim here.

Selections

West Ham + 0.25 @ 1.73