The Historic Colonial Country Club is the host for the PGA Tour this week. It's a classical 7,200 yard Par 70 with a lot of trees and a number of dogleg holes. Use of the driver will be reduced this week and players will have to master the bentgrass greens if they want to compete. The fairways are tough to hit and the greens are much smaller than most PGA courses so players will have to be have their short game on form.
Key Stats we are looking at this week:
Rickie Fowler @ 20/1 Betfair 7 places e/w 1/5 odds
Surprised to see Rickie as high as 20/1 in this field. He is priced shorter for the US Open next month. This course should fit his game well. He ranks 10th in the field over the last 12 months in SG:T2G, 2nd in Scrambling and Par 4 scoring, and 10th in 150-175 yard proximity. He has struggled at times with the putter this year but over longer samples he is one of the best on the greens and we expect that to rebound soon. He has also performed slightly better on courses with bentgrass greens, highlighted by his 2nd place at the recent Masters.
Zach Johnson @ 35/1 Marathon 5 places e/w 1/4 odds. 33/1 generally available
Zach Johnson has played well at this course with 3 Top 20s in his last 5 visits. He keeps the ball on the fairway, is an elite Par 4 scorer and excellent with mid-to-long irons. Zack consistently performs well in Texas and as an Open Champion can easily adapt if the wind starts to blow. Johnson is also 2nd in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years and looks a great bet to compete @ 35/1.
Chez Reavie @ 70/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds
Chez Reavie showed a slight return to form at TPC Sawgrass 2 weeks ago but still was not able to put his complete game together as he really struggled with his chipping. Chez has a solid all-round game: 2nd in Driving Accuracy and 3rd in Par 4 scoring in the last year. His 'around the green' game has been poor for a couple of months but he is 11th in scrambling over the last 12 months which suggests with a bit of work he can find his form again. Has some good finishes at similar courses in recent years and looks good to go well here again.
Charley Hoffman @ 80/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds
Texas Charley will be happy to see the tour back in The Lone Star State where he always seems to perform well. 11th in SG:T2G and 6th in Par 4 scoring are good stats for someone @ 80/1. A strong wind player who will want conditions to be difficult. Short game can be inconsistent but if his ball striking is on it will not be needed as much.
Pat Perez @ 100/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds
This looks a big price for a good all-round player who has proven he can win on tour. Poor recent form of 3 missed cuts in a row has inflated his odds. Up and done course history includes a Top 5 in 2015. An accurate driver, solid scrambler and good with the mid-to-long irons. 11th in this field in Par 4 scoring and an outstanding wind player which could come into play at some point this week.
Ben Martin @ 400/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds
Ben Martin has played well at Colonial making the cut in each of the last 4 years with 2 Top 20 finishes in that time. He has struggled with his game of late but has still been excellent from 150-175 yards and is 11th in this field in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years. Hopefully a return to a course where he has good memories could bring him back into some form.