under 3.5 cards at 1.83Monday Night Football sees Crystal Palace host Burnley, in a game that shouldn’t top the television viewing figures. Not only are both sides relatively unfashionable, they both have nothing concrete to play for.
Roy Hodgson may have Palace’s highest ever points tally (7 more to gain) in his sights, and as previously mentioned by this columnist, he’s not a manager to stand for taking your foot off the gas. One could argue the same of Sean Dyche though, and his barbed comments at the owners in this week’s press conference discuss the subject of funds to improve the squad. A man who isn’t happy with his lot; Dyche always looks to improve.
Sitting 10th and 11 respectively, only goal difference separates the sides and I’d expect the scoreline to be equally as tight. In fact, my first wager in this game comes in a first half stalemate, at 11/8 (2.37) with Betfair.
Do The Stats Support?
In the last 40 league games involving either club, 19 have seen a draw at HT land. If we look specifically at Selhurst Park, or on the road for The Clarets, this would be have landed in 20 of the last 40. Adjusting the sample size to only include middle third Premier League teams, the strike rate again remains around 50%. Given the odds imply this landed closer to 40% of the time, we may have ourselves a little value at a price of 2.37 compared to 3.
Palace average 1.61 cards per game, with Burney picking up 1.94. Interestingly Palace’s games see 3.90 cards, meaning their opponents tend to get just over 2 cards. Burnley’s average 3.13, meaning their opponents get around a card. This would support Burnley winning the card count today, something they’ve done in 55% of their games, with Palace also losing the card count in 55% of games. If Zaha starts, I’d be a backer of Burnley most yellows at 1.96 with Marathonbet. The Ivory Coast star has drawn a whopping 98 fouls this season, a figure only bettered by Jack Grealish (144). Jordan Ayew sits at 4th on this list, so if both start it’s a decent bet.
Simon Hooper officiates, and has a record of 2.8 cards given per game.I’ve observed increased leniency from Premier League referees post-lockdown. The stats back that up with a significant drop from 3.64 cards per game to 2.71! Given Mr Hooper shows half a card less per game than his colleagues (league average of 3.4), if we ignored the teams playing, the most likely card count would be 2. With the line set at 3.5, that could provide some value. There’s been 4 or more cards just 8 out of 24 since the resumption, but again the sample size is small so do apply caution.
0-0 at HT @2.37 Betfair
Draw at HT @1.91 Widely available
Burnley most yellow cards @1.96 Marathon (team news dependent)
Under 3.5 cards at 1.83