Cheltenham: Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)

Coffee Cup Chip (CCC)

The Supreme Novice Hurdle is a Grade 1 Level race. For those of you who are newcomers to horse racing, it's the equivalent of the Champions League in football.

The higher a horse is rate, the higher class it has to compete in. Unlike other races, the Supreme Novice hurdle is not a handicap race, so no horses carry extra weight as penalties. All horse carry level weights.

Open to horses aged 4 an over, The Supreme Novice Hurdle is traditionally the curtain raiser on the first day at Cheltenham.

Generally, the following criteria are important when thinking of which horse has a good chance of winning.

Has it won at Cheltenham before? 
Has it won over the distance?
Has it won at the graded level of the race?
Has it carried the weight before and won?
Has it won on the ground before?
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground?

Some -including this writer- would argue that previous Cheltenham performances do play a factor in judging the possibility of performing at this Cheltenham festival. Thankfully, due to the prestige of the occasion, we certainly need not worry about how hard owners will want their jockeys to try. This isn't National Hunt racing after all 

Whilst form is important, plenty of horses are scheduled and worked with Cheltenham specifically in mind. Sometimes more so from the really top owners & yards.

Before discussing the horses, here are some interesting stats.

- Since 2010, Nicky Henderson has had a horse placed in every supreme Novice except for 2015 (Lami Surge finished 4th). He won it last year with Altior.

- Since 2013, Willie Mullins has dominated this race. Winning them all except for last year, finishing 2nd to Altior.

- The past 30 years has seem the winners split 50/50 in respect of Irish or British ownership. 

- In the past 30 yearsOnly once has a 4 year old won. A 7 year old has won twice, and an 8 year old once.

- Since 2010 Only Douvan has won without an official rating and he is (i) an absolute machine, (ii) had won a Grade 2 in ireland and (iii) was unbeaten 2/2.

THE RUNNERS

MELON

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO
Has it won around a left handed track?- YES.
Has it won over the distance? - YES 2M.
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES 11-10
Has it won on the ground before? - GD.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS.


BALLYANDY

Has it won at the Festival before - YES
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - YES
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? YES, soft, Gd & Heavy.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. N Twiston-Davies.


BUNK OFF EARLY

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO (2nd in Grade 1, last time out beating 2 140+ rated horses)
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good, Gd/sft.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS.


RIVER WYLDE

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0-1.
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out)
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Last time out.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON.



CRACK MOME

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2, 2nd last time out)
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? NO, Good (Yeilding-irish equivalent).
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS.



HIGH BRIDGE

Has it won at the Festival before - NO. Ran 6/23 in Last years bumper (Ballyandy 1/23))
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0/2.
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Class 4 & 3 only over hurdles)
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? YES. Sft, G/S, Good.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. B PAULING.


BEYOND CONCEIT

Has it won at the Festival before - NO.
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO.
Has it won around a left handed track? - YES
Has it won over the distance? - YES & (Further 19.5F)
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out)
Has it carried the weight before and won? NO
Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me.

Is it aged 5 or 6 NO. 8.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON.


CILAOS EMERY

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO
Has it won around a left handed track? - YES
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 1, Listed, 2nd last time out)
Has it carried the weight before and won? YES
Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good/Yeilding
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. 4 minutes on soft/heavy ground last time out is pretty good imo.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS


ELGIN

Has it won at the Festival before - NO
Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO
Has it won around a left handed track? - YES
Has it won over the distance? - YES
Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES
Has it carried the weight before and won? NO. 2 Good 2nds with weight on back)
Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft & Good.
Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES for me last 2 races has run solid.

Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5.
Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. A KING.


LABAIK

Out of its last 8 races, the horse has refused to run 50% of the time. It also may as well not have raced last time out.
Obviously a horse with ability, but could never part with any money on it, based on his previous antics.


SELECTIONS


1. BALLYANDY - Certainly has the right form profile of previous winners of this race. 2/3 at the course, a festival win already to his name and a horse that Sam Twiston-Davies has always held in high regard when asked. If he was trained by Mullins or Henderson, would be an odds on chance in my opinion.


2. RIVER WYLDE - If you watch his win last time out, you wouldn't have been happy with his head carriage early on in the race and he didn't appear to settle to well. As they turn for home, you still wouldn't be sure as they did go a good pace by the looks of it to me. When Nico De Boinville did pull him out to challenge, he found loads more in the tank.
Although we're putting him up as an E/W chance, there is outside scope for enough improvement to win. You might want to use this selection in conjunction with the many offers around at Cheltenham.


2 potatoes on Ballyandy @4.5 (365, coral)
half a potato each way on River Wylde @9.0 (paddypower, betfair)
a quarter of a potato on Ballandy/River Wydle/Melon TRICAST

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