​Australian Open

Roger Federer -2.5games (v Tomas Berdych) @1.97  1 point stake
Mischa Zverev -2.5 games (v Malek Jaziri) @2.01    1 point stake


Zverev v Jaziri
Feel this price is a big overreaction to Zverev playing 5 sets in the last round v Isner. We saw 37 year old Karlovic play a mammoth 5-setter then come out looking fresh in the next round (ouch). Zverev has stronger hard court stats in the last year holding his serve 85%(Jaziri 81%) and breaking opponents 23.2%(Jaziri 18.6%). Jaziri often struggles to get serves in, so far serving 52% in this tournament. He can overcome that against Challenger level players he has met so far but will need to do much better against a good returner like Zverev. The opening set is very important here and Jaziri often loses concentration when behind and can lose a set by a big score at any moment.


Berdych v Federer
Federer had a long lay off last year after Wimbledon due to injury, which is why Federer is priced 1.67 for the match. When these 2 met in this tournament last year Roger was 1.17. If we get anything close to the Federer we saw in the first half of last year, he has a great chance of winning well. Berdych had a tough year last year: in 2015 he won 72% of his 99 hard court sets. In 2016 he won only 63% of 73 hard court sets. He really struggled with his return game, with his return points won dropping from 40.6% in 2015 to 37.2% in 2016, which is a significant difference. In the last 6 months this figure is only 35.6%. The H2H is hugely in Federer's favour, and he's won all 7 of their hard court sets in the last 2 years. Berdych has struggled against the really elite players and it often feels like he is beaten before the match starts. It will take a huge mental effort for him to be competitive here.
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