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The Historic Colonial Country Club is the host for the PGA Tour this week. It's a classical 7,200 yard Par 70 with a lot of trees and a number of dogleg holes. Use of the driver will be reduced this week and players will have to master the bentgrass greens if they want to compete. The fairways are tough to hit and the greens are much smaller than most PGA courses so players will have to be have their short game on form.
Key Stats we are looking at this week:
Rickie Fowler @ 20/1 Betfair 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Surprised to see Rickie as high as 20/1 in this field. He is priced shorter for the US Open next month. This course should fit his game well. He ranks 10th in the field over the last 12 months in SG:T2G, 2nd in Scrambling and Par 4 scoring, and 10th in 150-175 yard proximity. He has struggled at times with the putter this year but over longer samples he is one of the best on the greens and we expect that to rebound soon. He has also performed slightly better on courses with bentgrass greens, highlighted by his 2nd place at the recent Masters. Best Bet: Zach Johnson @ 35/1 Marathon 5 places e/w 1/4 odds. 33/1 generally available Zach Johnson has played well at this course with 3 Top 20s in his last 5 visits. He keeps the ball on the fairway, is an elite Par 4 scorer and excellent with mid-to-long irons. Zack consistently performs well in Texas and as an Open Champion can easily adapt if the wind starts to blow. Johnson is also 2nd in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years and looks a great bet to compete @ 35/1. Chez Reavie @ 70/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Chez Reavie showed a slight return to form at TPC Sawgrass 2 weeks ago but still was not able to put his complete game together as he really struggled with his chipping. Chez has a solid all-round game: 2nd in Driving Accuracy and 3rd in Par 4 scoring in the last year. His 'around the green' game has been poor for a couple of months but he is 11th in scrambling over the last 12 months which suggests with a bit of work he can find his form again. Has some good finishes at similar courses in recent years and looks good to go well here again. Charley Hoffman @ 80/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Texas Charley will be happy to see the tour back in The Lone Star State where he always seems to perform well. 11th in SG:T2G and 6th in Par 4 scoring are good stats for someone @ 80/1. A strong wind player who will want conditions to be difficult. Short game can be inconsistent but if his ball striking is on it will not be needed as much. Pat Perez @ 100/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds This looks a big price for a good all-round player who has proven he can win on tour. Poor recent form of 3 missed cuts in a row has inflated his odds. Up and done course history includes a Top 5 in 2015. An accurate driver, solid scrambler and good with the mid-to-long irons. 11th in this field in Par 4 scoring and an outstanding wind player which could come into play at some point this week. Ben Martin @ 400/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Ben Martin has played well at Colonial making the cut in each of the last 4 years with 2 Top 20 finishes in that time. He has struggled with his game of late but has still been excellent from 150-175 yards and is 11th in this field in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years. Hopefully a return to a course where he has good memories could bring him back into some form.
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PARRIS BARRONMy first bet comes at Turf Moor, and I’m backing Sean Dyche to mastermind another tight victory for what has become an unfashionable team to back recently. And that’s after Burnley had a period of being quite the favourites of bettors. They face a Sheffield United team who appear to be going one way.
The Blades had quiet ambitions for a Champions League qualification place before Premier League football resumed. Now they will be more concerned with merely finishing in the top half. My selection yesterday, Everton, carried my money proudly to close the gap on the Sheffield side to 2 points. Admittedly, United have a game in hand, but I’m hoping they lose that on Sunday, ideally in a boring, low scoring 1-0 late Burnley set piece. Burnley do concede 14 shots per game, which is above the league average of 12.5, but that ratio doesn’t convert into goals conceded as much as for other teams. There’s still 7 sides in the league that have conceded more, and In Nick Pope there’s a very solid keeper, -who worryingly is probably due a mistake!! Save that for next gameweek please Nick. News inside the camp is that The Clarets have concentrated on going back to basics after the demolition at the hands of City. They’ve followed that up with 2 clean sheets in 1-0 wins, and if results go their way, they could go 7th. Obviously I’d love Barnes and Wood to be available. The former certainly won’t start, and the latter has just an outside chance of 90 minutes. Rodriguez needs to be back for this one to pull the trigger on the bet with more than 1 point. I’m backing them on the Asian Handicap at -0.25, at odds of 6/4 (that’s 2.50 in decimal pricing). That means if the game is a draw, I only lose half my stake. Obviously Sheffield United will be very keen to bounce back from their recent poor results, but I think Wilder has got the best he can out of this squad and Sunday will be their 2nd match in 4 days. Whereas Burnley have had a bit more of a rest. The other bet I like is the 0-0 at half time at 11/8 (2.37), and the draw at half time at 1.95 (19/20). I can see the game being slow starting, feeling each other out, not over-committing and both sides being more than happy with a draw at HT. For those that like their current seasons stats, it’s landed in 12 and 13 times respectively, which would imply you’d want odds of 2.56. We’re only getting 2.37 but it’s more the match up of teams that I find of more interest here. For my 2nd bet of this game week, I’m going for a match between the team that I’ve backed against the most and it’s cost me, and the team that I’ve put my money for the most and it’s cost me. What could possibly go wrong? Can you guess the game? Selections Burnley -0.25 @ 2.5 0-0 at HT @2.37 Draw at HT @1.95 PARRIS BARRONMy second selection this weekend, at odds of 1.73 is West Ham +0.25 Asian goals v Newcastle. A draw means a half win and I’d like to keep that onside.
The main reason I’m betting this is because Newcastle are the biggest over performers on my own metrics. If I look at the places they have their shots, where they concede them, and the decisions they make in the final third, I just can’t get them onside. They are a -4.3 on my own proprietary ratings, which is awful. I don’t think either side would feel too hard done by if the game was a draw so it’s not a game I’m expecting to be open from the off. Recency bias may dictate that some punters want to get goals in Newcastle games onside but they only scored 1 against a porous Aston Villa and it wasn't until John Egan was sent off that they scored against Sheffield United. The game against Bournemouth was a must win for the Cherries, so it was inevitable that chances would come. David Moyes has had enough time for his beliefs t be instilled into the players at West Ham It’s whether they buy into his magnerial philosophy or not. Luckily he’s got a good captain in Mark Noble who will be a role model in that dressing room and be a great conduit for Moyes. They’ve got Fabianski back who is one of the best keepers in the league. Antonio is a menace up top, but only worry is goals for him and the team. But if the Hammers do get an early strike, I can see them getting a few due to Newcastle needing to come out and attack more, knowing they can afford a cavalier attitude with Premiership football guaranteed for next season. Of course, we’re going to need Ryan Fredricks to have a very good game against Saint Maximim here. Selections West Ham + 0.25 @ 1.73 PARRIS BARRONThe Foxes travel to Merseyside in a bid to kickstart their post-lockdown fortunes. Even going further back, Leicester’s record in all competitions over the last 15 games reads W4 D5 L6. Those wins came against Aston Villa, Brentford, Birmingham and West Ham; hardly a quality level of opposition. In the same time period Everton boast a record of W7 D4 L4. The defeats coming against traditional big 6 clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City. Despite these contrasting samples, Everton are 14 points off Brendan Rogers’ side in the league and the most important metric in football would suggest the gap isn’t due to good fortune. Leicester have a goal difference of +30, compared to Everton’s -8. Given this, why are Everton (2.64) favourites to win today?The answer, unfortunately for the old-school punters, lies in the expected goal data. Leicester’s expected goal difference is +12; they are scoring more than xG predicts they would, and are conceding less than xG predicts they would. That can happen when you have a top-class finisher like Jamie Vardy and a decent shot-stopped like Kasper Schmeichel. Whereas Everton aren’t scoring as many of the chances they should, and are conceding more than they should given the places they tend to give up shots on their goal. If we adjust the sample for Everton games where Ancelotti has presided, the data would say smooth Carlo has The Toffees performing better:
I’m going to take the 42/50 (1.84) on Everton +0 on the Asian Handicap. That’s also known as the ‘Draw No Bet’. An Everton win sees us profit as close to doubling our money, with the safety of a void bet if it’s a draw. New manager bounce is exaggerated by the untrained pundit. However, we’re dealing with a world-class, incredibly experienced manager. And there shouldn’t be a motivation problem for Everton players. Not only can they qualify for Europe (as low as 8th should see Europa League qualification), but players like Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin and Digne are in the shop window. In terms of team news, Everton can welcome Yery Mina back to the squad. Leicester should once again be without James Maddison which is a significant loss. Not to mention longer term absentee Ricardo Pereira who is probably the 2nd best right back in the league. Leicester have played twice since the restart, against two of the poorer teams, Watford and Leicester, with the respective 1-1 and 0-0 draws being a fair reflection of those matches. Let’s hope Leicester continue to struggle today. My one worry is Everton’s central midfield. I’m yet to be fully convinced that Sigurdsson and Gomes are the right combination, and I question their mobility. Tom Davies was pretty poor last time out against Norwich so I would imagine he’d be on the bench. Selection Everton +0AH (draw no bet) at 44/50 (1.85) with Bet365 Parris BarronHaving opened up at close to even money in some places, you really have missed the boat on Manchester United, with the price now around 3/5 (1.60). Granted, three points for The Red Devils is the most likely outcome, but the value has long gone. In fact United have only won 3 of the last 15 when favourites on the road. It is a very different United right now though, as we shall explore later in this preview. When pondering other ways to get Manchester’s second team onside, I’m bhoyed by the fact they’ve scored in 15 of their last 20, and Brighton have conceded in 17 of the last 20. I’d be very surprised if Brighton manage a shut-out, which makes one consider the most likely goalscorers for United. Antony Martial to score anytime is around 2.75 on both Betfair and Smarkets exchanges. Even if we ignore his hattrick against Sheffield United, he had scored in 10 separate games from 23 starts this season. That would imply odds of 13/10 (2.30) being a fair price (43.4% strike rate). Obviously to understand if we’re getting value, there are multiple factors to consider. Brighton are a team that concede pretty much bang on the average number of shots, which surprised me a little as I mistakenly thought they were quite good at limiting opposition shots. The stats highlight the reality here and perhaps Chris Hughton’s Brighton defence of Bruno, Dunk, Duffy and March are stuck in my mind. Afterall, matches involving Graham Potter’s Brighton are averaging just under 2.5 goals, which is only slightly below the league average of 2.6ish. With nothing in Brighton’s data to put me off backing United’s top scorer to bag at anytime, we should look at Martial’s shot data. Expected goals is a much masturbated over statistic that has some relevance, up to a point. Ignoring last time out vs Sheffield United, the fact he has 9 or 10 expected goals depending on which boffin records the data, means that he’s not a player who is having a spell of good luck. He’s pretty much scoring the amount he probably should. In terms of shots themselves, Antony has got off 3 or more in 16 out of 24 starts, meaning the 1.66 on offer on over 2 shots is worth a follow too. Given half of Martia’s shots this season are on target, I reckon if those supporting him can create enough for him to have 4 shots today, we’ll see a goal from Martial. Now let’s bring an ever growing extinct variable to the equation: this columnist’s human eye. With 3 of Matic, Fred, McTominay, Pogba and Fernandes likely to start, United’s central midfield is starting to look a lot more fluid which should mean their strikeforce continue to be presented with opportunities to get shots off. They can go from defence to attack much quicker than in the early part of Solsjaer’s management this season, and James and Rashford’s exploding pace on the wings only help get the ball into promising positions quicker. Brighton certainly aren’t mathematically safe, but would no doubt settle for a point. I can’t see that being the case for the away side; United need all 3 to keep the Champions League charge going. In yesterday’s winning 3 bets (from 4), one was U3.5 cards. Unfortunately my sources tell me that Andrew Marriner has a little soft spot for the Seaside life, and given the squid-stuffing Marriner gives even less yellow cards than yesterday’s men in black, Simon Hooper, it could be a low booking point tally. With the line set at 2.5, I’d either avoid, or back the unders and then get with the overs in play in the first half if you like a trading opportunity. In the card match-up, my model makes Brighton 5/4 (2.22) chances to win the cards market, with United 21/10 (2.1). That’s despite United averaging 1.9 cards compared to Brighton’s 1.58. One to avoid perhaps, although the Brighton DNB on Asian cards with 365 could come into play depending on starting line ups. Selections: Martial to score @2.75 Martial 02.5 shots @ 1.80 PaddyPower PARRIS BARRONunder 3.5 cards at 1.83Monday Night Football sees Crystal Palace host Burnley, in a game that shouldn’t top the television viewing figures. Not only are both sides relatively unfashionable, they both have nothing concrete to play for. Roy Hodgson may have Palace’s highest ever points tally (7 more to gain) in his sights, and as previously mentioned by this columnist, he’s not a manager to stand for taking your foot off the gas. One could argue the same of Sean Dyche though, and his barbed comments at the owners in this week’s press conference discuss the subject of funds to improve the squad. A man who isn’t happy with his lot; Dyche always looks to improve. Sitting 10th and 11 respectively, only goal difference separates the sides and I’d expect the scoreline to be equally as tight. In fact, my first wager in this game comes in a first half stalemate, at 11/8 (2.37) with Betfair. Do The Stats Support? In the last 40 league games involving either club, 19 have seen a draw at HT land. If we look specifically at Selhurst Park, or on the road for The Clarets, this would be have landed in 20 of the last 40. Adjusting the sample size to only include middle third Premier League teams, the strike rate again remains around 50%. Given the odds imply this landed closer to 40% of the time, we may have ourselves a little value at a price of 2.37 compared to 3. Cards Palace average 1.61 cards per game, with Burney picking up 1.94. Interestingly Palace’s games see 3.90 cards, meaning their opponents tend to get just over 2 cards. Burnley’s average 3.13, meaning their opponents get around a card. This would support Burnley winning the card count today, something they’ve done in 55% of their games, with Palace also losing the card count in 55% of games. If Zaha starts, I’d be a backer of Burnley most yellows at 1.96 with Marathonbet. The Ivory Coast star has drawn a whopping 98 fouls this season, a figure only bettered by Jack Grealish (144). Jordan Ayew sits at 4th on this list, so if both start it’s a decent bet. Simon Hooper officiates, and has a record of 2.8 cards given per game.I’ve observed increased leniency from Premier League referees post-lockdown. The stats back that up with a significant drop from 3.64 cards per game to 2.71! Given Mr Hooper shows half a card less per game than his colleagues (league average of 3.4), if we ignored the teams playing, the most likely card count would be 2. With the line set at 3.5, that could provide some value. There’s been 4 or more cards just 8 out of 24 since the resumption, but again the sample size is small so do apply caution. Selections 0-0 at HT @2.37 Betfair Draw at HT @1.91 Widely available Burnley most yellow cards @1.96 Marathon (team news dependent) Under 3.5 cards at 1.83 Friday night football is back, and arguably the marquee fixture of the weekend sees Jose Mourinho host his former club, Manchester United.
At 2/1 I’d rather be on Spurs than United, but I’m not involved in the 1x2 as there’s too many unknowns about players' fitness for me to be comfortable taking a price where I see maybe 5% of value. If they were say 9/4 then maybe I’d get involved. What interests me more is the cards market here. Jonathan Moss officiates in what will be his first game between the traditional big 6 this season. He refereed each of these sides once this season, giving United 2 cards and Spurs 4, in games involving 4 and 9 cards respectively. However these numbers are pretty meaningless as a sample size of 1 is just irrelevant. What is relevant is that he averages a shade under 4 yellows per game this season, from a sample of 20 games refereed. He has given 42 home yellows and 37 away yellows, so not a big disparity. And if the Bunderliga return is anything to go by, games behind closed doors tend to mean slightly more fouls and yellow cards given against home sides than if a partizan crowd was present. The reason I’m saying all this is to highlight that I’m not scared of backing the home side to pick up most yellow cards, despite the average success rate being 32.29% in the PL this season.For those that care, and if you do, you might need to go and get a beer and live a little, the away side wins the card count 43.06% of the time this season in the PL. Again, I suspect these two numbers to level out slightly whilst we’re seeing attendances of 30-50 staff and cameramen! Looking at games involving The Lilywhites, and by the way the younger audience may not know that was a Tottenham nickname due to the colour of their shirts. Tottenham have won the card count 45% of the time this season, drawing 21% and losing 34% of the time. United, have won the yellow card count just 21% of the time, drawing 24% and losing 55% If we combine those average we’re looking at Spurs winning the card count tomorrow 5 times out of every 10 times this match was played, a draw a couple of times, and United winning the card coin the other 3 times. Given that, I’m happy to make a play based purely on the price of 7/5 for Spurs to collect most yellow cards. The odds are implying it happens 41.7% of the time, so 4 times in 10, but I’ve got this closer to 5 out of 10. If we get more specific and look at card counts against other traditional top 6 teams, United have won the card count twice, losing 5 times. And since Mouinho came in, in November, Spurs have won 3 out of 5. So again, both just extra pieces of data that offer a little support. Obviously we want team news to be onside and if 3 out Sissokko, Winks, Davies, Aurier and Kane aren’t starting, I’d probably be worried. 1pt O2.5 Mansfield v Colchester @ 2.36 Marathon Bet
Last year Mansfield were dominant at home, losing only three games, scoring 42 goals in the process, writes ALEX EVERSON, who made a winning debut at Evens in the Blackpool v Portsmouth game. The average goals per game at Field Mill was 2.96. 52% of all league games went over 2.5 goals, with 43% going over 3.5. Colchester, last season, were a mid table side, finishing 13th. Their away matches had a total of 52 goals in 23 games, an average of 2.26. Although this is a low total, 48% of their matches went over 2.5 goals. When we aggregate this with Mansfield O2.5 from last year, we have a 50% hit rate on O2.5 goals, yet we are being offered 2.36 representing only a 42.3% chance on this landing, showing we should have some value. This season so far, Mansfield have blown sides away going forwards, scoring 11 goals in 3 games (Including a 6-1 win against newly promoted Accrington Stanley in the EFL Cup). The price we are being offered suggests that Colchester are a defensive side. They have kept 2 clean sheets in their league games so far. They have given up 8 shots in both games (Away to Notts County and home to Port Vale). They have only had 3 shots on target against them though - though we think the chances of this changing v Mansfield represents value at the price. Mansfield have registered 25 shots across their two league games (9 on target) following that up with 16 against Accrington (10 on target) in the EFL Cup. There is no reason to suggest they cannot continue this chance creation at home v a mid table side. Up front for Mansfield is Danny Rose, a striker who jointly topped the clubs goalscoring charts last year with 14. Szmodics, who scored 10 last season for Colchester will be hoping to score from his attacking midfield role. Colchester also playing their number 2 -Dillion Barnes- from last year in goal now because of losing Sam Walker to Reading. Barnes was in fact was on loan in the conf south last season to Welling and Hemel. BTTS YES @10BET 2.00 (eve money).
Portsmouth started their league campaign with a 1-0 win against Luton Town, whilst Blackpool gained a credible 0-0 draw away to newly promoted Wycombe Wanderers. Gary Bowyer's resignation has thrown a spanner in the works, with many Blackpool fans crediting him as the main reason the club managed a top half finish last season. Portsmouth finished just outside the playoff spots, and have managed to bring in a strong defensive midfielder in Tom Naylor, who played for Burton in over 30 championship games last season. In this fixture last season, Blackpool lost 3-2, and whilst they were excellent against teams lower in the table -only losing once at home to bottom half sides- they only managed two wins against top half teams. Both of these victories came against clubs in crisis at the time:Charlton 1-0 and Bradford 5-0. The Seasiders only keep 2 clean sheets at home last season v 11 top half opponents. However they managed to find the net in all of these games. That's an 82% BTTS success rate. Portsmouth did struggle away from home, conceding 35 goals and losing 12. Whilst there was multiple games that Portsmouth failed to score in last season, BTTS did land in 11/23 away games, or 48% of the time. With an aggregate 65% success rate last season, there's some value in betting on BTTS, given that the odds of Evens imply just a 50% success rate. Craig MacGillivray starts in goal for Portsmouth, and is normally a backup keeper in this division. Last season, he gained promotion with Shrewsbury, however played less than 10 times. Up front for Portsmouth will be Brett Pitman, with 23 goals last season will be their main threat. He will be partnered by Ronan Curtis, a summer signing from Derry City. His goal record in 2018 was 8 goals in 24 matches for his previous club. Blackpool also will start with a goalkeeper who was on the bench last season; Mark Howard, previously of Bolton. Howard however has played for the Seasiders before in a short 6 month spell in 2012. Blackpool have lost their top scorer from last season, Kyle Vassell who bagged 11 goals. Nathan Delfouneso will lead the line and it's likely that Joe Dodoo, a loanee from Rangers, will join him up front, in a supporting number 10 role. Coffee Cup Chip (CCC)The Supreme Novice Hurdle is a Grade 1 Level race. For those of you who are newcomers to horse racing, it's the equivalent of the Champions League in football.
The higher a horse is rate, the higher class it has to compete in. Unlike other races, the Supreme Novice hurdle is not a handicap race, so no horses carry extra weight as penalties. All horse carry level weights. Open to horses aged 4 an over, The Supreme Novice Hurdle is traditionally the curtain raiser on the first day at Cheltenham. Generally, the following criteria are important when thinking of which horse has a good chance of winning. Has it won at Cheltenham before? Has it won over the distance? Has it won at the graded level of the race? Has it carried the weight before and won? Has it won on the ground before? Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? Some -including this writer- would argue that previous Cheltenham performances do play a factor in judging the possibility of performing at this Cheltenham festival. Thankfully, due to the prestige of the occasion, we certainly need not worry about how hard owners will want their jockeys to try. This isn't National Hunt racing after all Whilst form is important, plenty of horses are scheduled and worked with Cheltenham specifically in mind. Sometimes more so from the really top owners & yards. Before discussing the horses, here are some interesting stats. - Since 2010, Nicky Henderson has had a horse placed in every supreme Novice except for 2015 (Lami Surge finished 4th). He won it last year with Altior. - Since 2013, Willie Mullins has dominated this race. Winning them all except for last year, finishing 2nd to Altior. - The past 30 years has seem the winners split 50/50 in respect of Irish or British ownership. - In the past 30 yearsOnly once has a 4 year old won. A 7 year old has won twice, and an 8 year old once. - Since 2010 Only Douvan has won without an official rating and he is (i) an absolute machine, (ii) had won a Grade 2 in ireland and (iii) was unbeaten 2/2. THE RUNNERS MELON Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track?- YES. Has it won over the distance? - YES 2M. Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO Has it carried the weight before and won? YES 11-10 Has it won on the ground before? - GD. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS. BALLYANDY Has it won at the Festival before - YES Has it won at Cheltenham before? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, soft, Gd & Heavy. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. N Twiston-Davies. BUNK OFF EARLY Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO (2nd in Grade 1, last time out beating 2 140+ rated horses) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good, Gd/sft. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS. RIVER WYLDE Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0-1. Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Last time out. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON. CRACK MOME Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2, 2nd last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? NO, Good (Yeilding-irish equivalent). Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS. HIGH BRIDGE Has it won at the Festival before - NO. Ran 6/23 in Last years bumper (Ballyandy 1/23)) Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0/2. Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Class 4 & 3 only over hurdles) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES. Sft, G/S, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. B PAULING. BEYOND CONCEIT Has it won at the Festival before - NO. Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES & (Further 19.5F) Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? NO Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 NO. 8. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON. CILAOS EMERY Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 1, Listed, 2nd last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good/Yeilding Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. 4 minutes on soft/heavy ground last time out is pretty good imo. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS ELGIN Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES Has it carried the weight before and won? NO. 2 Good 2nds with weight on back) Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft & Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES for me last 2 races has run solid. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. A KING. LABAIK Out of its last 8 races, the horse has refused to run 50% of the time. It also may as well not have raced last time out. Obviously a horse with ability, but could never part with any money on it, based on his previous antics. SELECTIONS 1. BALLYANDY - Certainly has the right form profile of previous winners of this race. 2/3 at the course, a festival win already to his name and a horse that Sam Twiston-Davies has always held in high regard when asked. If he was trained by Mullins or Henderson, would be an odds on chance in my opinion. 2. RIVER WYLDE - If you watch his win last time out, you wouldn't have been happy with his head carriage early on in the race and he didn't appear to settle to well. As they turn for home, you still wouldn't be sure as they did go a good pace by the looks of it to me. When Nico De Boinville did pull him out to challenge, he found loads more in the tank. Although we're putting him up as an E/W chance, there is outside scope for enough improvement to win. You might want to use this selection in conjunction with the many offers around at Cheltenham. 2 potatoes on Ballyandy @4.5 (365, coral) half a potato each way on River Wylde @9.0 (paddypower, betfair) a quarter of a potato on Ballandy/River Wydle/Melon TRICAST For all of our other Cheltenham selections, please donate £10+ to the male mental health charity CALM via our justgiving page www.justgiving.com/savethepunter Drop us an email when that is done so you can be added to the circular helpsavethepunter@gmail.com |
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