Burnley v Sheffield United, 5th July

PARRIS BARRON

My first bet comes at Turf Moor, and I’m backing Sean Dyche to mastermind another tight victory for what has become an unfashionable team to back recently. And that’s after Burnley had a period of being quite the favourites of bettors. They face a Sheffield United team who appear to be going one way.

The Blades had quiet ambitions for a Champions League qualification place before Premier League football resumed. Now they will be more concerned with merely finishing in the top half. My selection yesterday, Everton, carried my money proudly to close the gap on the Sheffield side to 2 points. Admittedly, United have a game in hand, but I’m hoping they lose that on Sunday, ideally in a boring, low scoring 1-0 late Burnley set piece.

Burnley do concede 14 shots per game, which is above the league average of 12.5, but that ratio doesn’t convert into goals conceded as much as for other teams. There’s still 7 sides in the league that have conceded more, and In Nick Pope there’s a very solid keeper, -who worryingly is probably due a mistake!! Save that for next gameweek please Nick.

News inside the camp is that The Clarets have concentrated on going back to basics after the demolition at the hands of City. They’ve followed that up with 2 clean sheets in 1-0 wins, and if results go their way, they could go 7th.

Obviously I’d love Barnes and Wood to be available. The former certainly won’t start, and the latter has just an outside chance of 90 minutes. Rodriguez needs to be back for this one to pull the trigger on the bet with more than 1 point.

I’m backing them on the Asian Handicap at -0.25, at odds of 6/4 (that’s 2.50 in decimal pricing). That means if the game is a draw, I only lose half my stake.

Obviously Sheffield United will be very keen to bounce back from their recent poor results, but I think Wilder has got the best he can out of this squad and Sunday will be their 2nd match in 4 days. Whereas Burnley have had a bit more of a rest.

The other bet I like is the 0-0 at half time at 11/8 (2.37), and the draw at half time at 1.95 (19/20).

I can see the game being slow starting, feeling each other out, not over-committing and both sides being more than happy with a draw at HT.  For those that like their current seasons stats, it’s landed in 12 and 13 times respectively, which would imply you’d want odds of 2.56. We’re only getting 2.37 but it’s more the match up of teams that I find of more interest here.

For my 2nd bet of this game week, I’m going for a match between the team that I’ve backed against the most and it’s cost me, and the team that I’ve put my money for the most and it’s cost me. What could possibly go wrong? Can you guess the game?


Selections

Burnley -0.25 @ 2.5
0-0 at HT @2.37
Draw at HT @1.95