Chicago bears @ Minnesota Vikings. Sunday 6.00pm.
Under 46.5 points.
2pts @10/11. Bet365.
The last few weeks both of these teams have been involved in some high scoring matches, which I believe has helped us out here in pushing this line too high. Both sides are run heavy and when two teams like this meet the result is generally low scoring affairs. Also this is a historically low scoring divisional game, when they met earlier in the year it finished on 32 points. Previous years (which you do have to take with a pinch of salt but show a trend) have ended in 40,22,34,45,33,37,48,30,55,43,22 and 34 points going back to 2014.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts. Sunday 6.00pm.
Darren Fells over 11.5 receiving yards.
1.5pts @ 5/6. Bet365.
I was originally looking at going over his longest reception line at 9.5 yards, but with the total just being two more that’s definitely the play. He’s gone over 11.5 yards in 9 of 11 games, the only two times he didn’t were games where he had no catch. One of those was against Indianapolis, which is the only thing that dampens enthusiasm, still more than happy to take this line though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons. 6.00pm Sunday.
Tom Brady under 309.5 passing yards.
1.5pts @5/6. Bet365.
Going in again on Brady not hitting his yards. It’s set at 309.5 this week and although this should be a higher and more free scoring game than last week I still think it’s too high. He’s finished under this line in 9 of 13 games. I think he will get more than last weeks 196 but still don’t think he will make it over 300.
Cleveland Browns @ NY Giants. Monday 1.20am.
The Browns have really hot form the past few weeks offensively, culminating in a 47-42 loss to Baltimore. However the giants aren’t going to be able to put up anywhere near that amount of points so it comes down to how many they can restrict Cleveland to. The giants defence is okay, but Mayfield and the rest of the browns offence should still have enough to put points on the board. The giants however, for whom it’s still not clear whether it will be Jones or McCoy at QB, have so few weapons to use that regardless who’s in at QB you have to fancy Cleveland to cover a one touchdown spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 6.00pm Sunday.
Tom Brady under 295.5 passing yards. 3pts @ 5-6 bet365.
In 12 games this year Brady has gone over this line 5 times, under 7. However each game he has gone over (apart from one) has been a high scoring shoot-out, with both sides throwing the ball around. That’s very much not the Vikings way, who will look to use Cook a lot on the ground, eating up the clock in the process. Add to that Tampa Bay’s top two receivers have both missed practice this week (Mike Evans is particularly looking questionable) it gives this line a great look
NY Jets @ Seattle Seahawks. 9.05pm Sunday.
Chris Carson over 56.5 rushing yards. 1pt @ 5/6 bet365.
The winless Jets travel to Seattle and are very likely to remain winless. This should be simple for the Seahawks and I expect them to use Carson a lot more now that he’s getting back to full fitness. Throughout his career his yards have always been higher in both games and games that Seattle win.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles. 9.25pm Sunday.
Alvin Kamara under 2.5 receptions. 2pts @ 6/5.
Taysom Hill still in at QB for saints so it’s surely going to be the same as every other he has started, low scoring old fashioned power football. Using Kamara as a catcher from the backfield doesn’t fit in to this style of play, he has only 3 receptions over the course of 3 starts for Hill.
Atlanta Falcons @ LA Chargers.
Younghoe koo over 1.5 field goals made.
2pt @ 8/11 William Hill. Koo has arguably been the best kicker in the league this season, with just one miss from 33 attempts. He’s made 2 or more in 10 of his 11 games. Against an average chargers defence the Falcons should get the ball in field goal territory on multiple occasions
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills. 1.20am Monday.
Pittsburgh moneyline 1pt @ 11/10 bet365.
Also: Devin Singletary over 15.5 receiving yards. 2pts @ 5/6 bet365. I fancy the steelers to bounce back from a disappointing loss to Washington. I really think the Pittsburgh defence will be able to get to Josh Allen, almost at will and this could cause the bills offense real problems. That leads onto the Singletary bet. With TJ Watt and co getting the pressure on Allen I expect one of his few choices will be to dump the ball of quickly to the running backs. Singletary has gone over this line in 8 of his 12 games this season, and I’m expecting him to have more opportunities to do so on this occasion.
Saturday 5th December 2020
Chelsea: Played 10, 3rd position, 19PTS, 18.89 xPTS, 22 goals for, 16.16 xG, 10 goals against, 8.53 xGA
Leeds: Played 10, 12th position, 14PTS, 14.71 xPTS, 15 goals for, 16.89 xG, 17 goals against, 16.16 xGA
The North London derby will draw the attention of most this weekend, but my pick of the card is this match-up between two dynamic teams. Leeds have been hailed as the best of the promoted bunch, with many expecting them to push for a top half finish in their first season back in the top flight for 16 years. While their current position doesn’t quite match up to these expectations, we are barely over a quarter of the way into the season, and they have been relatively unlucky in their meetings with teams such as Liverpool and Arsenal. Remarkably, they have dominated possession in all of their games so far this campaign, including against Liverpool and Manchester City, who average 59.6% and 62.6% respectively. This embodies Bielsa’s philosophy and exemplifies Leeds’ approach – they are not afraid to go toe-to-toe with even the best teams in the league and impose their game plan.
Unsurprisingly, Chelsea have got off to a strong start this season after investing heavily in the summer – with distinct focus on the recruitment of exciting attacking talent. Interestingly though, their 5.84 difference between expected goals and actual goals scored suggests they may have been over-performing at the top end of the pitch. While this may suggest some reversion to the mean at some point down the line, it may also simply indicate the quality of their forwards; not to mention the fact they have also won four penalties so far this season in the league.
While I think there’s some value in a goal head-start for Leeds on the Asian Handicap market, my main play for this fixture will be Leeds shots. They rank 3rd in the league in this particular stat, only behind Liverpool and Manchester City, with an average of 15.3 shots per game. While Chelsea only concede on average 9.5 shots per game, it’s important to note that they have played the 5 weakest teams in the league in terms of shots taken. One other vital factor to consider with this specific type of bet is how often a team goes behind and has to chase the game. Given their attacking talent, I expect Chelsea to get on the score-sheet, and they have taken the lead in half of their games thus far; while Leeds have fallen behind in half of their games up to this stage.
I think 11 Leeds shots is an adequate starting line, and you can get this on SkyBet, Betfair, PaddyPower and Bet365. This line opened at 1.91 on Betfair/PaddyPower but unfortunately this has since shortened, with the best price now 1.83 with Skybet. I also like to take a few of the higher lines; if the game state is right, Leeds can really motor and rack up huge numbers, as seen in recent games against Everton and Arsenal. Stakes should be staggered in order to cover most/all of your total outlay if the first line is hit.
Leeds 11+ total shots – 1.83@SkyBet
Leeds 13+ total shots – 3.1@Betfair/PaddyPower
Leeds 15+ total shots – 6.0@SkyBet/Betfair/PaddyPower
Leeds 17+ total shots – 15.0@Betfair/PaddyPower