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1pt O2.5 Mansfield v Colchester @ 2.36 Marathon Bet
Last year Mansfield were dominant at home, losing only three games, scoring 42 goals in the process, writes ALEX EVERSON, who made a winning debut at Evens in the Blackpool v Portsmouth game. The average goals per game at Field Mill was 2.96. 52% of all league games went over 2.5 goals, with 43% going over 3.5. Colchester, last season, were a mid table side, finishing 13th. Their away matches had a total of 52 goals in 23 games, an average of 2.26. Although this is a low total, 48% of their matches went over 2.5 goals. When we aggregate this with Mansfield O2.5 from last year, we have a 50% hit rate on O2.5 goals, yet we are being offered 2.36 representing only a 42.3% chance on this landing, showing we should have some value. This season so far, Mansfield have blown sides away going forwards, scoring 11 goals in 3 games (Including a 6-1 win against newly promoted Accrington Stanley in the EFL Cup). The price we are being offered suggests that Colchester are a defensive side. They have kept 2 clean sheets in their league games so far. They have given up 8 shots in both games (Away to Notts County and home to Port Vale). They have only had 3 shots on target against them though - though we think the chances of this changing v Mansfield represents value at the price. Mansfield have registered 25 shots across their two league games (9 on target) following that up with 16 against Accrington (10 on target) in the EFL Cup. There is no reason to suggest they cannot continue this chance creation at home v a mid table side. Up front for Mansfield is Danny Rose, a striker who jointly topped the clubs goalscoring charts last year with 14. Szmodics, who scored 10 last season for Colchester will be hoping to score from his attacking midfield role. Colchester also playing their number 2 -Dillion Barnes- from last year in goal now because of losing Sam Walker to Reading. Barnes was in fact was on loan in the conf south last season to Welling and Hemel.
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BTTS YES @10BET 2.00 (eve money).
Portsmouth started their league campaign with a 1-0 win against Luton Town, whilst Blackpool gained a credible 0-0 draw away to newly promoted Wycombe Wanderers. Gary Bowyer's resignation has thrown a spanner in the works, with many Blackpool fans crediting him as the main reason the club managed a top half finish last season. Portsmouth finished just outside the playoff spots, and have managed to bring in a strong defensive midfielder in Tom Naylor, who played for Burton in over 30 championship games last season. In this fixture last season, Blackpool lost 3-2, and whilst they were excellent against teams lower in the table -only losing once at home to bottom half sides- they only managed two wins against top half teams. Both of these victories came against clubs in crisis at the time:Charlton 1-0 and Bradford 5-0. The Seasiders only keep 2 clean sheets at home last season v 11 top half opponents. However they managed to find the net in all of these games. That's an 82% BTTS success rate. Portsmouth did struggle away from home, conceding 35 goals and losing 12. Whilst there was multiple games that Portsmouth failed to score in last season, BTTS did land in 11/23 away games, or 48% of the time. With an aggregate 65% success rate last season, there's some value in betting on BTTS, given that the odds of Evens imply just a 50% success rate. Craig MacGillivray starts in goal for Portsmouth, and is normally a backup keeper in this division. Last season, he gained promotion with Shrewsbury, however played less than 10 times. Up front for Portsmouth will be Brett Pitman, with 23 goals last season will be their main threat. He will be partnered by Ronan Curtis, a summer signing from Derry City. His goal record in 2018 was 8 goals in 24 matches for his previous club. Blackpool also will start with a goalkeeper who was on the bench last season; Mark Howard, previously of Bolton. Howard however has played for the Seasiders before in a short 6 month spell in 2012. Blackpool have lost their top scorer from last season, Kyle Vassell who bagged 11 goals. Nathan Delfouneso will lead the line and it's likely that Joe Dodoo, a loanee from Rangers, will join him up front, in a supporting number 10 role. |
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