|
The most anticipated week in golf is finally here as the players head to Augusta for the 1st major of the year. The betting for this event is very different to your average PGA Tour event as the betting market was opened months in advance rather than a few days as you get with most tournaments. The odds have shifted over that time as players seemingly go in and out of form. Big name former winners here, Bubba, Phil and Tiger have shortened dramatically over the last few months as their form improved.
The only major played at the same course each year. Augusta is a 7,400 yard Par 72 that plays longer due to the way the grass is mown. The fairways are wide and easy to hit, while the rough is so short it is not a real obstacle so driving distance is a big key this week. Missing fairways is not a huge problem unless you are spraying it all over the place. Good form has shown to be important leading up to the event and while Augusta is a true test of all aspects of a player’s game, these are the main key stats we are looking at: · Ball-Striking · Par 5 Scoring · Proximity from 200+ yards · Driving Distance · Birdie-or-Better % · Scrambling · Greens in Regulation % Spieth, Mcilroy, Thomas and Dustin Johnson are at the top of the market all between 10-12/1. There has been times over recent months when Spieth and Rory were priced slightly higher and may have represented value but they are probably about right now. Tiger is just behind them @ 14/1 but he has struggled driving the ball since his return so is tough to trust unless he has figured that out since his last tournament. Many people’s tip Justin Rose is next up @ 14/1 and he has a great track record here. He’s finished 2nd twice in the last 3 years and has Top-25s in each of his last 7 trips here. He has a great chance but the value may be gone and we will have a look at some players who are more under-the-radar at this point to see if we can find value. Jon Rahm @ 25/1 WH 7 places e/w 1/5 odds. Unibet 6 places 1/4 odds The Spaniard is the 3rd ranked golfer in the world but we are getting about double the odds from the other top guys. This may be due to his inexperience at Augusta as this is only his 2nd visit, he finished 27th last year. The course is a good fit for him though. He is a bomber who is 2nd in this field in Stokes Gained:Off-The-Tee and Proximity from 200+ yards over the last 12 months. He has a win 5 tournaments ago at the Careerbuilder challenge but his form has cooled off a bit since then, mainly due to his iron play not being as sharp. Despite this his long iron play from 200+ yards has still been solid which is more important here. He makes a lot of birdies but the question is whether he knows the course well enough to avoid costly mistakes. Hideki Matsuyama @ 35/1 Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds A wrist injury has caused Hideki to drift but should finish well if he is 100% fit. An elite ball-striker at his best it is often putting that lets him down. At Augusta we have seen a number of lower ranked putters do well (think Sergio and Rose last year, Bubba with 2 wins, Adam Scott 1 of the worst putters on tour also with a win). He has played well here finishing in the Top 11 the last 3 years. The greens here are very tough to hit so chipping is vital to avoid bogeys and keep momentum which Hideki excels at. Often saves his best form for majors shown by Top 15 finishes in each Major last year. A good each/way shout. First-Timers It is well documented that course experience is important here. Only 2 1st timers have ever won here the last coming in 1979. That trend will surely be broken at some point but recently we have seen 1st timers perform well without winning. Spieth finished 2nd on his 1st appearance here and last year Thomas Pieters was 4th. There are 2 who we think provide each way value: Xander Schauffele @ 90/1 PaddyPower 8 places 1/5 odds. The Masters layout should suit the 2017 Rookie of the year. Over the last 12 months he is 7th in this field in Driving Distance and 11th in Par 5 scoring. In 2018 he has improved his long approach play and if he can get back to his prolific Par 5 scoring he can play well here. He loves putting on fast bentgrass greens which we have here and we have already seen he can rise to the big occasion when he won the last event of the FedEx Cup playoffs last year The Tour Championship. Tony Finau @ 100/1 WH 7 places 1/5 odds. 90/1 Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds Another bomber who putts much better on bentgrass greens. Finau leads the tour in driving distance this year. Surprisingly it has been Par 5 scoring which has held him back this year and probably cost him the victory at The Genesis Open. He is 2nd in the field in Par 5 scoring in the last year and he will definitely get back to his level soon. 4th In ball-striking and birdie% the key for him will be avoiding bogeys and keeping momentum. Has the profile of a winner here which may be more likely in future years but can certainly get a high finish this year. Wildcards Charley Hoffman @ 100/1 Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds Despite not being the longest driver he is outstanding Off-The-Tee and scores very well on Par 5s. Good course history making the cut each time. He finished 10th 3 years ago and although he only finished 22nd last year he led by 4 after the 1st round and was only 2 shots back going into Sunday. Tends to perform better on hard courses with fast greens. Has played well Tee-To-Green so far in 2018 without putting well. Maybe the move to fast bentgrass greens can heat up the putter. More a 1st round leader bet, but I think the bookies are on to this so his odds are quite low. Maybe someone to trade. Gary Woodland @ 150/1 Unibet 6 places 1/4 odds. 125/1 WH 7 places 1/5 odds Despite not having a great pedigree here at Augusta Woodland has the profile of someone who can play well. He looks a better player now than when he arrived here in previous years. He missed the cut last year but was dealing with tragic circumstances off the course. He has a win this year after so many close calls in recent years so should bring confidence into the event. 9th in Driving Distance, 6th in Proximity from 200+ yards and 3rd in GIR% over the last 12 months bode well. The key for Gary will be scrambling and putting, areas where he can struggle. Has not performed well since his win but after a few weeks off hopefully he can get back to his best here. Best Bet Kevin Chappell @ 125/1 WH 7 places 1/5 odds. 110/1 Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds. For us the best value on the board is Kevin Chappell. The only minor issue is a potential back injury after he pulled out of the WGC Matchplay but that appears to have been just a precaution. Has played consistently since last summer missing only 1 CUT since the Open Championship in July. He has gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach in each of his last 4 events with 2 Top 10s in that time. 3rd in Driving Distance, 4th in ball striking and 5th in Proximity from 200+ yards in the last year are good indicators. In 2018 he has improved his scrambling which will be vital at times here. Has slightly over-performed his baseline in major championships and has made the cut in both his appearances here. He finished 44th in 2012 and 7th last year. He has been trending up in the last couple years finally getting his 1st win at the 2017 Valero Texas Open after so many near misses. Scoring on the Par 5s will be crucial and if he can hole a few 10ft par putts he will have a chance to be there on Sunday. Top 20s: Alex Noren has been in outstanding form recently finishing lower than 21st once in his last 7 events and Bryson DeChambeau was in contention for 3 rounds as an amateur in 2015 and is an elite Par 5 scorer who likes hard courses. Their odds have come in recently and may not present enough value for the outright win. One of the most open tournaments in years, there are plenty others we like to do well but you can’t back the whole field J. Just sit back and enjoy…
0 Comments
Congratulations to Patrick Reed on a great tournament and particularly his performance on Sunday being able to hold off all the big names in the chasing pack to earn his 1st major and a green jacket. He is a very interesting character and despite not being the most popular winner ever at Augusta the win was fully deserved, holing tough putts at vital times and fighting well.
This week the PGA Tour heads to Hilton Head Island on the South Carolina Coast for a course that could hardly be more different than Augusta National. Harbour Town Golf Links is a 7,100 yard Pete Dye design with Bermudagrass greens. It is a short tree-lined course where keeping the ball in play and on the right side of fairways is important to give yourself a chance to attack the pin. Most players will not hit many drivers and the emphasis is hitting the fairway and nailing the approach. The sole similarity from last week is that the greens here are tough to hit. These are the smallest greens on tour so getting up and down for par to keep momentum will be vital. Key Stats we are looking at this week: Driving Accuracy Stokes Gained: Tee-to-Green Strokes Gained: Short game (putting/chipping) Par 4 Scoring Proximity 150-200 yards Bogey Avoidance The leading contenders are Dustin Johnson, Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar. DJ has played here twice and never made a cut but is playing here for the 1st time since 2009. He is only playing here as he is sponsored by RBC so we have to question how focussed he will be and therefore cannot be backed at less than 10/1. Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar should go well here where it will all depend on the putter for them, but it is tough to take guys with there strike rates below 20/1. It wouldn’t be an RBC Heritage Preview without mentioning Luke Donald. The former world no.1 has an incredible record here with 7 Top 3 finishes in the last 9 years without winning. That would suggest each way value and it would not surprise us to see him contend but the form is not there for a recommendation from us. Even his trusty iron game is struggling, losing strokes on approach in his last 3 tournaments. Here are some players we think provide value: Marc Leishman @ 33/1 BetStars 5 places e/w 1/4 odds The Australian is coming off a good masters week that he will feel could have been so much better having sat 2nd at the halfway point. He struggled off the tee at Augusta but was dialled in with the irons and putted very well. That could bode well for this week where he can leave the driver in the bag. 6th in this field in SG:Tee-2-Green over the last year and has gained strokes around the green in 12 of his last 15 tournaments so we know he can get up and down when he misses the green. The course setup looks to suit. Being Australian he is used to playing in the wind and has performed well on coastal courses. Top 10 finishes in his last 2 stroke-play events show he has the form to contend. Adam Hadwin @ 40/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Another player who has been in excellent form recently. 8th in SG:T2G and 2nd in bogey avoidance in 2018 the thing holding him back from a big finish has been putting. This is a bit of a surprise as that has historically been the strongest part of his game. No real course form to speak of but his approach play from 150-200 yards has been outstanding in the last 2 months and if the putter heats up he will be there or thereabouts. Ian Poulter @ 50/1 PaddyPower 7 places e/w 1/5 odds We know the Englishman is in good form, the question is does he have enough left in the tank for another good week. At 50/1 we are willing to take a chance that he does. Over the last 12 months he is 9th in this field in SG:T2G and 4th in proximity from the important distance of 150-175 yards where a lot of his approaches will be played from this week. His approach play from 175-200 has been outstanding the last month and the week he made some putts he was able to get the win. He is a Pete Dye specialist who plays his best golf on bermudagrass. Has solid form on this course with Top 20s in 2 of the last 3 years here when he wasn’t playing as well as he is right now. Ollie Schniederjans @ 66/1 Unibet 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Ollie looks well suited here as he has played his best golf on coastal courses with bermudagrass greens. He is 7th in the field from 150-175 yards and has really improved his short game recently, gaining strokes around the green in 6 of his last 7 events. 3rd here on debut last year and has good finishes at similar layouts, 2nd at The Wyndham Championship and 6th at The RSM classic last year. He is known for hitting low stinging irons off the tee -which we hope to see this week. OS will have plenty of support out there. Chris Kirk @ 100/1 Skybet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds Chris Kirk is a player who is slowly getting back to his best form. Since the turn of the year he is 10th in this field in SG:T2G, 11th in Driving Accuracy and 16th in bogey avoidance. He performs very well on Pete Dye designs and has been consistently excellent from 175-200 yards for months now. A multiple winner at his best, it seems only a matter of time before he finds the winners circle again. Longshots to consider: Kelly Kraft @ 125/1 Betfair/PaddyPower 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Kraft is another player in form with 2 Top 10s in his last 4 events. He likes colder, windier coastal conditions, but struggles with the driver. Consequently these shorter courses suit him. He has been hitting it close from 150-200 yards lately and has always been a solid putter. Vaughn Taylor @ 200/1 Betfair/PaddyPower 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Vaughn Taylor has been solid this year, making the cut in 4 straight tournaments with 2 Top 20s. He is 5th in the field in Driving Accuracy and Top 10 in proximity from 150-200 yards. He is an excellent chipper but struggles to make putts. No real pedigree on Pete Dye courses but if he finds some form on the greens he could go well at a big price. Blayne Barber @ 250/1 Betfair/Coral/PaddyPower 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Another Pete Dye specialist who is arguably the best putter on tour on bermudagrass greens. A good wind player who may have found some form with the irons over the last month. 2nd April 2018 A great win last week for Satoshi Kodaira at the RBC Heritage to earn his PGA Tour card. It was an exciting week of golf but Si Woo Kim backers will not be happy with how he played down the stretch, appearing to give the tournament away after missing a number of short putts. This week will be another tough test in windy conditions, but that is probably where the similarities end.
TPC San Antonio is a long 7,435 yard Par 72 with fairways and greens that are very tough to hit. It is a Greg Norman design with plenty of trees lining the fairways. The rough is not too thick here but the trees and native area can lead to trouble as Kevin Na knows all too well after making a 16 on the Par 4 9th in 2011. The main key stats we are looking at this week:
Xander Schauffele @ 33/1 Skybet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds A great driver of the ball who leads this field in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and 8th in Driving Distance over the last 12 months. Loves a long course and his ball-striking has been on form for a while now, gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in his last 5 tracked events. Won twice last year in stronger fields than this so looks to go well here on a course that should suit. JB Holmes @ 60/1 Unibet 6 places e/w 1/5 odds Another long driver, JB has finished in the Top 16 in 3 of his 5 visits here. He is an outstanding wind player who is showing signs of getting back to his best ball-striking form after falling away towards the end of last year. He has gained over 12 strokes on approach in his last 3 events and but poor putting has cost him a good finish. He has putted well at times here and if he performs well on the greens this week he should go well. Long Shots to consider: Aaron Wise @ 125/1 Betfair/Coral/PaddyPower 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Aaron Wise has been playing solid in 2018 without any really good finishes. He is 14th in Driving Distance and 8th in BoB% in 2018. He looks to be a good wind player. A highly rated prospect who is poised to come good if he can get all his game together at the same time. Was consistently hitting it close from 175-225 yards from November-February so if he can back to that form can contend. Brandon Harkins @ 150/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Another player who has shown flashes this season without really breaking through. 11th in Driving Distance, 16th in BoB% and 28th in SG:T2G in 2018 bode well for this test. 25th at The Sony Open, 8th at Careerbuilder, 12th at Farmers and 15th at Pebble beach show that he knows how to play in windy conditions. The main weakness in his game is his around the green play so he will need to continue his outstanding iron play from 150-225 yards. Robert Garrigus @ 200/1 Coral, BoyleSports 7 places e/w 1/5 odds An elite ball striker coming in 8th in Driving Distance, 7th in Bob% and 4th in proximity from 175-200 yards this year. The issue with Garrigus is often putting where he is one of the worst on tour. He has actually gained strokes putting in 2 of his last 3 events including an outstanding putting performance at another Texas course in Houston. The overseeded green surfaces in Houston have a similar make-up to the ones found here so if we are being hopeful another good putting performance could lead to a good score. The PGA Tour returns to North Carolina. Quail Hollow is a venue which last hosted the 2017 PGA Championship. The course was set up slightly different than normal for that week and we expect it to be back to its usual conditions for this week. The rough was much tougher to play from last year, meaning that missing fairways often led to big trouble. This year it will not play nearly as difficult, with early spring conditions allowing easier contact from off the fairway.
Last year this championship was held at Eagle Point Golf Club so those results are of less significance. The field is absolutely stacked with 8 of the World’s Top 15 in attendance as well as a resurgent Tiger Woods. This should be a great event and in being awarded hosting rights, shows that Quail Hollow truly is one of the great golf courses. The course will provide a true Tee-2-Green test. A 7,550 yard Par 71 with very hard to hit fairways, and overseeded Bermuda grass greens., means that players will need to use a Driver off the tee a lot. Furthermore any golfer you back will need to cope with greens that are generally slightly faster than tour average. With a lack of rain in the area recently, the course looks like it will be very firm. This could reduce the advantage 'bombers' generally have, but we still think Distance is still an important criteria. It's likely that players who gain strokes off the green will perform well this week. Key stats we are looking at this week:
Daniel Berger @ 66/1 Coral , BoyleSports 7 places e/w 1/5 odds A solid all-round player who is quietly putting some consistent form together. He has Top 20s in 6 of his last 9 starts. 15th in SG:T2G and 3rd in Par4 450-500 yard scoring bode well for a player who should enjoy these conditions. 14th in this field over the last 2 years in Bermuda putting and he actually leads the field in total strokes gained on courses with Bemuda. A solid putter generally these greens should really suit him and his improved scrambling this year could help him save a few pars to maintain momentum. He will be hoping he can add to his 2 PGA Tour wins this week. Luke List @ 66/1 SkyBet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds List has come so close to winning this season many feel the win is just around the corner. 3 Top 10s in his last 7 tournaments; he shaved the hole on the 18th at The Heritage to miss a playoff by 1 stroke and lost a playoff to world number 2 Justin Thomas at The Honda Classic in February. A real bomber: he leads this field in Driving Distance, SG:OTT and SG:T2G over the last 12 months. 3rd in 200+ proximity and Par 5 scoring he can use his length to set up easier approach shots. This year his chipping is much improved and we have seen him make some extraordinary recovery shots. Putting often lets him down but he has performed well on overseeded Bermuda in the past which is a strong sign as just an average putting week would give him a great chance. Gary Woodland @ 90/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Another long driver who has been up and down this season. Woodland has struggled since winning The Phoenix Open in February missing 3 of 5 cuts, but his driving has stayed at an elite level and this could be the course to get him back on track. 9th in SG:T2G and 200+ yard proximity and 1st in GIR bode well here and he has a strong history at Quail Hollow since 2014. 18th, 4th, and 24th were his finishes, as well as 22nd at The PGA last year. This shows Gary knows the layout well. Hard to hit fairways help his game and overseeded greens have brought out some of his best putting in the past. JB Holmes @ 100/1 SkyBet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds JB, a former winner of this event looks worth chancing @ 100/1. Always a great driver and strong ball striker, he has struggled to put consistent play together mainly due to putting, because he has lost strokes on the greens in 8 straight tournaments!! He knows this layout though and has putted extremely well on these greens. Since 2014 when the Bermuda was introduced he has gained 12.8 strokes in 3 tournaments which is phenomenal. Xander Schauffele @ 100/1 Unibet 6 places e/w 1/5 odds X continues to be underrated. Arguably the best driver on tour he is an elite Par 5 scorer who also ranks 19th in this field in Par 4 450-500 yard scoring and is a sneaky good scrambler. Long driver heavy courses will always suit him and we know he can win in strong fields after his Tour Championship success at the end of last season. Jamie Lovemark @ 100/1 SkyBet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds Another long driver, Lovemark is 20th in the field in SG:T2G and 22nd in Par 4 450-500 yard scoring. He has made 7 cuts in a row since getting his driver back on control and is an excellent scrambler which should help him limit mistakes. His approach play has been superb over the last 2 months and the wildcard is the putter, however we are placing less emphasis on putting here as a number of lower ranked putters have won this tournament in recent years. Lucas Glover @ 100/1 SkyBet 8 places e/w 1/5 odds Another former winner of this event, Glover has been one of the tour’s elite ball strikers and worst putters over the last 2 years. This season his approach play has not been as stellar but his putting has improved. His driving remains outstanding, gaining strokes in 10 straight events. He played well in the team event last week and the key this week will be avoiding costly mistakes. Improved putting will help as he has gained strokes on the greens in 3 straight events and Bermuda has always been his preferred surface. Found the water on 18 2 years ago to finish 8th so hopefully he can go slightly better this week. Keith Mitchell @ 250/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/5 odds Mitchell looks worth a flutter at really high odds here. His driving has been outstanding recently gaining a crazy 12.3 strokes off-the-tee in his last 3 events. His chipping has been superb as well leading to Top 10s in 2 of his last 4 events. Luke List found the water on the 72nd hole yesterday to miss out on a place by 1 shot. Jason Day was the winner with a ridiculous chipping and putting performance, gaining over 13 strokes with his short game! It would have been difficult to project as he hit less than half the fairways and only 57% of GIR for the week, but this can be overcome when you make every putt.
This week the ‘best field in golf’ head down to TPC Sawgrass in Jacksonville for another true golfing test. The course is a 7,200 yard Par 72 Pete Dye design with Bermuda greens. The test will be different to Quail Hollow as this is a ‘less than driver’ course where finding the fairway is more important. GIR rate drops dramatically here when playing from the rough and short game will be vital due to these greens being much smaller than average. Key Stats we are looking at this week:
Despite a relatively poor history here, it still feels like a course that should suit Spieth’s game. He finished 4th on his first visit here but has missed the cut in each of the last 3 years. In the last 12 months he ranks first in the field in SG:T2G, 2nd in SG:APP, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance and 14th in scrambling. It may come as shock to casual golf followers but his problem in the last year has been with the putter. He has spoken about struggling to figure out these greens in the past but you would have to expect it will come back at some point. The lack of course history is giving us a good price for the win. He plays well on Pete Dye courses and often produces his best form on shorter tracks where using the Driver is not as important.3rd place in his last 2 starts show that the game is almost there. Henrik Stenson 29/1 Skybet, BetStars, Betway 8 places 1/5 odds The 2009 winner here, Stenson is in excellent recent form with Top 6s in his last 3 starts. For stats he ranks 5th in Driving accuracy, 5th in Bogey Avoidance and 10th in SG:APP over the last 12 months. He is also 9th in Bermuda Putting over the last 18 months. The main concern is with chipping where he has struggled this year but he has elite GIR stats which should mean he has to scramble less than most of the field. His last start was at the Masters where he came 5th having poor previous form at Augusta. Coming to a course where has has an excellent record could help him to play better and get the win. Webb Simpson @ 100/1 Paddy Power 10 places e/w 1/5 odds Webb is another player with in good recent form who looks a good fit for TPC Sawgrass. 22nd in SG:T2G, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring and 1st in Scrambling in the last 12 months. His putting has improved dramatically over the last year or so. He ranks 25th in this field in Bermuda Putting over the last 18 months, 5th over the last 12 months and 3rd in 2018. 3 Top 10s in his last 6 strokeplay events he came 21st last week but was very close to putting a complete performance together. He gained 5 strokes on approach and was solid with chipping and putting. Driving was below par but that should not be a big problem this week where finding the fairway is more important than bombing it out there. Chris Kirk @ 125/1 Paddy Power 10 places e/w 1/5 odds Chris Kirk is a solid all-round player who is back to playing well. We backed him at The Heritage and the reasoning will be similar here. Kirk plays very well at Pete Dye courses but only finished 55th at The Heritage as he had an uncharacteristically poor week with his irons. Finished 8th last time out at Valero at a course that is not a clear fit for his game. In 2018 he is 18th in SG:T2G, 20th in Bogey Avoidance, 28th in SG:APP and 21st in Scrambling. Solid history at this course finishing 13th, 13th and 12th in 3 of the last 4 years(in 2016 he was forced to withdraw). Chez Reavie @ 200/1 Paddy Power 10 places e/w 1/5 odds. 250/1 Bet365 6 places e/w 1/4 odds Chez was on fire in February with back-to-back 2nd places but has really struggled since then. He has taken a month off since the Masters so hopefully can start getting back to form here. A shorter more accurate hitter, he is 2nd in Driving Accuracy over the last year and even in his recent slump he was still finding fairways. A solid iron player, he also ranks 5th in Bogey Avoidance, 7th in Par 3 scoring and 24th in Scrambling in the last 12 months. Doesn’t have a great record here or at other Pete Dye courses but he has the game to do well at his best and worth a shot @ 200/1+. The Historic Colonial Country Club is the host for the PGA Tour this week. It's a classical 7,200 yard Par 70 with a lot of trees and a number of dogleg holes. Use of the driver will be reduced this week and players will have to master the bentgrass greens if they want to compete. The fairways are tough to hit and the greens are much smaller than most PGA courses so players will have to be have their short game on form.
Key Stats we are looking at this week:
Rickie Fowler @ 20/1 Betfair 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Surprised to see Rickie as high as 20/1 in this field. He is priced shorter for the US Open next month. This course should fit his game well. He ranks 10th in the field over the last 12 months in SG:T2G, 2nd in Scrambling and Par 4 scoring, and 10th in 150-175 yard proximity. He has struggled at times with the putter this year but over longer samples he is one of the best on the greens and we expect that to rebound soon. He has also performed slightly better on courses with bentgrass greens, highlighted by his 2nd place at the recent Masters. Best Bet: Zach Johnson @ 35/1 Marathon 5 places e/w 1/4 odds. 33/1 generally available Zach Johnson has played well at this course with 3 Top 20s in his last 5 visits. He keeps the ball on the fairway, is an elite Par 4 scorer and excellent with mid-to-long irons. Zack consistently performs well in Texas and as an Open Champion can easily adapt if the wind starts to blow. Johnson is also 2nd in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years and looks a great bet to compete @ 35/1. Chez Reavie @ 70/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Chez Reavie showed a slight return to form at TPC Sawgrass 2 weeks ago but still was not able to put his complete game together as he really struggled with his chipping. Chez has a solid all-round game: 2nd in Driving Accuracy and 3rd in Par 4 scoring in the last year. His 'around the green' game has been poor for a couple of months but he is 11th in scrambling over the last 12 months which suggests with a bit of work he can find his form again. Has some good finishes at similar courses in recent years and looks good to go well here again. Charley Hoffman @ 80/1 Bet365 5 places e/w 1/4 odds Texas Charley will be happy to see the tour back in The Lone Star State where he always seems to perform well. 11th in SG:T2G and 6th in Par 4 scoring are good stats for someone @ 80/1. A strong wind player who will want conditions to be difficult. Short game can be inconsistent but if his ball striking is on it will not be needed as much. Pat Perez @ 100/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds This looks a big price for a good all-round player who has proven he can win on tour. Poor recent form of 3 missed cuts in a row has inflated his odds. Up and done course history includes a Top 5 in 2015. An accurate driver, solid scrambler and good with the mid-to-long irons. 11th in this field in Par 4 scoring and an outstanding wind player which could come into play at some point this week. Ben Martin @ 400/1 Coral 7 places e/w 1/5 odds Ben Martin has played well at Colonial making the cut in each of the last 4 years with 2 Top 20 finishes in that time. He has struggled with his game of late but has still been excellent from 150-175 yards and is 11th in this field in Bentgrass putting over the last 2 years. Hopefully a return to a course where he has good memories could bring him back into some form. PARRIS BARRONMy first bet comes at Turf Moor, and I’m backing Sean Dyche to mastermind another tight victory for what has become an unfashionable team to back recently. And that’s after Burnley had a period of being quite the favourites of bettors. They face a Sheffield United team who appear to be going one way.
The Blades had quiet ambitions for a Champions League qualification place before Premier League football resumed. Now they will be more concerned with merely finishing in the top half. My selection yesterday, Everton, carried my money proudly to close the gap on the Sheffield side to 2 points. Admittedly, United have a game in hand, but I’m hoping they lose that on Sunday, ideally in a boring, low scoring 1-0 late Burnley set piece. Burnley do concede 14 shots per game, which is above the league average of 12.5, but that ratio doesn’t convert into goals conceded as much as for other teams. There’s still 7 sides in the league that have conceded more, and In Nick Pope there’s a very solid keeper, -who worryingly is probably due a mistake!! Save that for next gameweek please Nick. News inside the camp is that The Clarets have concentrated on going back to basics after the demolition at the hands of City. They’ve followed that up with 2 clean sheets in 1-0 wins, and if results go their way, they could go 7th. Obviously I’d love Barnes and Wood to be available. The former certainly won’t start, and the latter has just an outside chance of 90 minutes. Rodriguez needs to be back for this one to pull the trigger on the bet with more than 1 point. I’m backing them on the Asian Handicap at -0.25, at odds of 6/4 (that’s 2.50 in decimal pricing). That means if the game is a draw, I only lose half my stake. Obviously Sheffield United will be very keen to bounce back from their recent poor results, but I think Wilder has got the best he can out of this squad and Sunday will be their 2nd match in 4 days. Whereas Burnley have had a bit more of a rest. The other bet I like is the 0-0 at half time at 11/8 (2.37), and the draw at half time at 1.95 (19/20). I can see the game being slow starting, feeling each other out, not over-committing and both sides being more than happy with a draw at HT. For those that like their current seasons stats, it’s landed in 12 and 13 times respectively, which would imply you’d want odds of 2.56. We’re only getting 2.37 but it’s more the match up of teams that I find of more interest here. For my 2nd bet of this game week, I’m going for a match between the team that I’ve backed against the most and it’s cost me, and the team that I’ve put my money for the most and it’s cost me. What could possibly go wrong? Can you guess the game? Selections Burnley -0.25 @ 2.5 0-0 at HT @2.37 Draw at HT @1.95 PARRIS BARRONMy second selection this weekend, at odds of 1.73 is West Ham +0.25 Asian goals v Newcastle. A draw means a half win and I’d like to keep that onside.
The main reason I’m betting this is because Newcastle are the biggest over performers on my own metrics. If I look at the places they have their shots, where they concede them, and the decisions they make in the final third, I just can’t get them onside. They are a -4.3 on my own proprietary ratings, which is awful. I don’t think either side would feel too hard done by if the game was a draw so it’s not a game I’m expecting to be open from the off. Recency bias may dictate that some punters want to get goals in Newcastle games onside but they only scored 1 against a porous Aston Villa and it wasn't until John Egan was sent off that they scored against Sheffield United. The game against Bournemouth was a must win for the Cherries, so it was inevitable that chances would come. David Moyes has had enough time for his beliefs t be instilled into the players at West Ham It’s whether they buy into his magnerial philosophy or not. Luckily he’s got a good captain in Mark Noble who will be a role model in that dressing room and be a great conduit for Moyes. They’ve got Fabianski back who is one of the best keepers in the league. Antonio is a menace up top, but only worry is goals for him and the team. But if the Hammers do get an early strike, I can see them getting a few due to Newcastle needing to come out and attack more, knowing they can afford a cavalier attitude with Premiership football guaranteed for next season. Of course, we’re going to need Ryan Fredricks to have a very good game against Saint Maximim here. Selections West Ham + 0.25 @ 1.73 PARRIS BARRONThe Foxes travel to Merseyside in a bid to kickstart their post-lockdown fortunes. Even going further back, Leicester’s record in all competitions over the last 15 games reads W4 D5 L6. Those wins came against Aston Villa, Brentford, Birmingham and West Ham; hardly a quality level of opposition. In the same time period Everton boast a record of W7 D4 L4. The defeats coming against traditional big 6 clubs: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City. Despite these contrasting samples, Everton are 14 points off Brendan Rogers’ side in the league and the most important metric in football would suggest the gap isn’t due to good fortune. Leicester have a goal difference of +30, compared to Everton’s -8. Given this, why are Everton (2.64) favourites to win today?The answer, unfortunately for the old-school punters, lies in the expected goal data. Leicester’s expected goal difference is +12; they are scoring more than xG predicts they would, and are conceding less than xG predicts they would. That can happen when you have a top-class finisher like Jamie Vardy and a decent shot-stopped like Kasper Schmeichel. Whereas Everton aren’t scoring as many of the chances they should, and are conceding more than they should given the places they tend to give up shots on their goal. If we adjust the sample for Everton games where Ancelotti has presided, the data would say smooth Carlo has The Toffees performing better:
I’m going to take the 42/50 (1.84) on Everton +0 on the Asian Handicap. That’s also known as the ‘Draw No Bet’. An Everton win sees us profit as close to doubling our money, with the safety of a void bet if it’s a draw. New manager bounce is exaggerated by the untrained pundit. However, we’re dealing with a world-class, incredibly experienced manager. And there shouldn’t be a motivation problem for Everton players. Not only can they qualify for Europe (as low as 8th should see Europa League qualification), but players like Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin and Digne are in the shop window. In terms of team news, Everton can welcome Yery Mina back to the squad. Leicester should once again be without James Maddison which is a significant loss. Not to mention longer term absentee Ricardo Pereira who is probably the 2nd best right back in the league. Leicester have played twice since the restart, against two of the poorer teams, Watford and Leicester, with the respective 1-1 and 0-0 draws being a fair reflection of those matches. Let’s hope Leicester continue to struggle today. My one worry is Everton’s central midfield. I’m yet to be fully convinced that Sigurdsson and Gomes are the right combination, and I question their mobility. Tom Davies was pretty poor last time out against Norwich so I would imagine he’d be on the bench. Selection Everton +0AH (draw no bet) at 44/50 (1.85) with Bet365 |
RSS Feed
