Coffee Cup Chip (CCC)The Supreme Novice Hurdle is a Grade 1 Level race. For those of you who are newcomers to horse racing, it's the equivalent of the Champions League in football.
The higher a horse is rate, the higher class it has to compete in. Unlike other races, the Supreme Novice hurdle is not a handicap race, so no horses carry extra weight as penalties. All horse carry level weights. Open to horses aged 4 an over, The Supreme Novice Hurdle is traditionally the curtain raiser on the first day at Cheltenham. Generally, the following criteria are important when thinking of which horse has a good chance of winning. Has it won at Cheltenham before? Has it won over the distance? Has it won at the graded level of the race? Has it carried the weight before and won? Has it won on the ground before? Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? Some -including this writer- would argue that previous Cheltenham performances do play a factor in judging the possibility of performing at this Cheltenham festival. Thankfully, due to the prestige of the occasion, we certainly need not worry about how hard owners will want their jockeys to try. This isn't National Hunt racing after all Whilst form is important, plenty of horses are scheduled and worked with Cheltenham specifically in mind. Sometimes more so from the really top owners & yards. Before discussing the horses, here are some interesting stats. - Since 2010, Nicky Henderson has had a horse placed in every supreme Novice except for 2015 (Lami Surge finished 4th). He won it last year with Altior. - Since 2013, Willie Mullins has dominated this race. Winning them all except for last year, finishing 2nd to Altior. - The past 30 years has seem the winners split 50/50 in respect of Irish or British ownership. - In the past 30 yearsOnly once has a 4 year old won. A 7 year old has won twice, and an 8 year old once. - Since 2010 Only Douvan has won without an official rating and he is (i) an absolute machine, (ii) had won a Grade 2 in ireland and (iii) was unbeaten 2/2. THE RUNNERS MELON Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track?- YES. Has it won over the distance? - YES 2M. Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO Has it carried the weight before and won? YES 11-10 Has it won on the ground before? - GD. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS. BALLYANDY Has it won at the Festival before - YES Has it won at Cheltenham before? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, soft, Gd & Heavy. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. N Twiston-Davies. BUNK OFF EARLY Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO (2nd in Grade 1, last time out beating 2 140+ rated horses) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good, Gd/sft. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson Yes. W MULLINS. RIVER WYLDE Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0-1. Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. Last time out. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON. CRACK MOME Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2, 2nd last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? NO, Good (Yeilding-irish equivalent). Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS. HIGH BRIDGE Has it won at the Festival before - NO. Ran 6/23 in Last years bumper (Ballyandy 1/23)) Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. 0/2. Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Class 4 & 3 only over hurdles) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES. Sft, G/S, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 6. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. B PAULING. BEYOND CONCEIT Has it won at the Festival before - NO. Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO. Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES & (Further 19.5F) Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 2 winner last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? NO Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft, Good/Sft, Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? NO, not for me. Is it aged 5 or 6 NO. 8. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. N HENDERSON. CILAOS EMERY Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? NO. (Grade 1, Listed, 2nd last time out) Has it carried the weight before and won? YES Has it won on the ground before? YES, Good/Yeilding Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES. 4 minutes on soft/heavy ground last time out is pretty good imo. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson YES. W MULLINS ELGIN Has it won at the Festival before - NO Has it won at Cheltenham before? - NO Has it won around a left handed track? - YES Has it won over the distance? - YES Has it won at the graded level of the race? YES Has it carried the weight before and won? NO. 2 Good 2nds with weight on back) Has it won on the ground before? YES, Soft & Good. Has it posted a good time on the clock, on similar ground? YES for me last 2 races has run solid. Is it aged 5 or 6 YES 5. Is it trained by W Mullins or N Henderson NO. A KING. LABAIK Out of its last 8 races, the horse has refused to run 50% of the time. It also may as well not have raced last time out. Obviously a horse with ability, but could never part with any money on it, based on his previous antics. SELECTIONS 1. BALLYANDY - Certainly has the right form profile of previous winners of this race. 2/3 at the course, a festival win already to his name and a horse that Sam Twiston-Davies has always held in high regard when asked. If he was trained by Mullins or Henderson, would be an odds on chance in my opinion. 2. RIVER WYLDE - If you watch his win last time out, you wouldn't have been happy with his head carriage early on in the race and he didn't appear to settle to well. As they turn for home, you still wouldn't be sure as they did go a good pace by the looks of it to me. When Nico De Boinville did pull him out to challenge, he found loads more in the tank. Although we're putting him up as an E/W chance, there is outside scope for enough improvement to win. You might want to use this selection in conjunction with the many offers around at Cheltenham. 2 potatoes on Ballyandy @4.5 (365, coral) half a potato each way on River Wylde @9.0 (paddypower, betfair) a quarter of a potato on Ballandy/River Wydle/Melon TRICAST For all of our other Cheltenham selections, please donate £10+ to the male mental health charity CALM via our justgiving page www.justgiving.com/savethepunter Drop us an email when that is done so you can be added to the circular helpsavethepunter@gmail.com
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Tom MayrickWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. This Aviva Premiership match between Bath (4th out of 12) and Wasps (1st) looks like it should be a great encounter between two of England’s great teams. Bath are looking to keep their play-off place in tact, whilst Wasps are pushing for the title.
Bath go into the game after losing to 12th in the table, Bristol. Bath looked very ordinary against a Bristol team that isn’t playing very well (Bristol hadn’t won since 1st January). Bath do bring back 3 internationals in Welsh pair Luke Charteris and Toby Faletau and England winger Anthony Watson, but have lost key fly half Rhys Priestland. This in my eyes is a bigger loss than the gain of the other three as Priestland has been key back up to George Ford, who is currently away with the England team. This loss of Priestland means that Bath has had to promote academy player Adam Hastings to the team. Hastings is only 20 and has only started twice for Bath in his short career and may prove vulnerable in such a key position. I think Wasps may look to attack his channel and make his inexperience count in their favour. Bath have a record of 2-0-4 in their last 6, with 3 of those losses to teams in the bottom half of the table. Wasps, currently top of the league, are coming into this off the back of a good win vs. Gloucester last weekend. The team had a couple of new faces (all of whom were internationals), jelled quickly and features a talented back line filled with a plethora of international experience which, behind their solid scrum, is set to shine. Wasps have the second best away record this season, only bettered by Exeter and come into the game with a record of 4-1-1 in their last six games, one of which is a win at home against Bath by 14 points. Each team has made 3 enforced changes (due to the Six Nations and injuries) since that game, but the quality that Wasps can bring in, in my eyes is far superior to that of Bath’s and should pay dividends. My bet for this is: Wasps to win @ 2.0 with Skybet, Bet365, Betstars, Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Coral and Betbright. The PGA tour heads to Mexico this week with a strong field for the WGC. 49 of the world's top 50 are playing. It seems the tour took a position on the US Election last year moving this tournament from the Trump owned Doral course and playing it in Mexico .It is a tough week to judge with no course history and little known about how the course will play. For that reason slightly lower stakes than normal are advised.
The course sits at a very high altitude meaning the ball will travel further and may make the course play very short. With Poa Annua greens in play World Number 1 Dustin Johnson rightly leads the betting @ 7/1 but we will be looking at slightly higher prices this week. Sergio Garcia E/W @ 28/1 Sergio has an excellent record at altitude. He lives in the Swiss Alps where the Omega European Masters -1 of the highest altitude golf tournaments- is played. He is a former winner there and also has 4 top 6 finishes in 5 tries. His form is excellent and he's already won this year at the Dubai Desert Classic. Last week he struck the ball excellently, ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee(SG:OTT) and 4th in Strokes Gaines Tee to Green(SG:T2G). The problem, as often is the case with Sergio, was on the greens where he lost 2 shots to the field. Bermudagrass is his least favoured surface so hopefully he can fare better this week. Never the best putter on any greens, Segio's ball striking form will keep him in contention and if he can hold his own on the greens looks a good selection here. Jimmy Walker E/W @ 70/1 Betfred The PGA Champion is coming off 2 solid weeks and will hope to further improve here. With the course likely to play short, accurate short-iron and wedge play becomes all the more important. Jimmy has been in the top 20 in proximity to the hole from 50-125 yards in each of the last 2 years including 8th last year. That combined with his excellent putting should provide a number of birdie opportunities. The issue for Jimmy is his accuracy off the tee. Wayward drives will be punished on this tree-lined course so he will have to perform well here and perhaps club down to ensure he hits fairways. Despite being a long hitter he has played some of his best golf at short courses.A major champion last year can win vs these strong fields and has the game to contend @ 70/1. JB Holmes E/W @ 100/1 JB is another who has performed well at altitude in the past. Sometimes it seems JB Holmes is mis-cast as someone who can only do well at bombers courses so can get overlooked on shorter tracks. He is excellent with short-irons and wedges which should help him this week. JB has a lot of 20th-30th position finishes in recent months. He can put great stretches of play together but always seems to have 1 bad round per tournament. Sometimes his aggressiveness gets the better of him but hopefully that can work in his favour this week. The key will be avoiding the big numbers. If he can do that for the most part, he looks good value @ 100/1 |
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