Roger Federer -2.5games (v Tomas Berdych) @1.97 1 point stake
Mischa Zverev -2.5 games (v Malek Jaziri) @2.01 1 point stake
Zverev v Jaziri
Feel this price is a big overreaction to Zverev playing 5 sets in the last round v Isner. We saw 37 year old Karlovic play a mammoth 5-setter then come out looking fresh in the next round (ouch). Zverev has stronger hard court stats in the last year holding his serve 85%(Jaziri 81%) and breaking opponents 23.2%(Jaziri 18.6%). Jaziri often struggles to get serves in, so far serving 52% in this tournament. He can overcome that against Challenger level players he has met so far but will need to do much better against a good returner like Zverev. The opening set is very important here and Jaziri often loses concentration when behind and can lose a set by a big score at any moment.
Berdych v Federer
Federer had a long lay off last year after Wimbledon due to injury, which is why Federer is priced 1.67 for the match. When these 2 met in this tournament last year Roger was 1.17. If we get anything close to the Federer we saw in the first half of last year, he has a great chance of winning well. Berdych had a tough year last year: in 2015 he won 72% of his 99 hard court sets. In 2016 he won only 63% of 73 hard court sets. He really struggled with his return game, with his return points won dropping from 40.6% in 2015 to 37.2% in 2016, which is a significant difference. In the last 6 months this figure is only 35.6%. The H2H is hugely in Federer's favour, and he's won all 7 of their hard court sets in the last 2 years. Berdych has struggled against the really elite players and it often feels like he is beaten before the match starts. It will take a huge mental effort for him to be competitive here.
Jaap Stam's Reading will host Ian Holloway's Queens Park Rangers in a Championship clash featuring two teams who have both had Premiership status in the last 10 years. This season only Reading can really have any hope of returning at the end of the current season.
The Royals sit in 3rd place with 46 points from 24 games and a game in hand over most teams in the division. QPR, by contrast, lie 17th -5 points above the drop zone and will most likely be looking to next season for a possible chance at promotion.
Having spoken to a few QPR fans and people in the know, they have fears over their teams ability to put the ball in the net. This is proven by their tally of just 24 goals in 25 games. Worryingly for the 'R's', if you combine this the club's agreement for a deal to sell Sebastian Polter (4 goals in 20 appearances this season) to Union Berlin recently and Tjaronn Chery (4 goals in 20 appearances this season) also having had a transfer request accepted, they are not looking too threatening at present.
This can be backed up by them having only scored 4 goals in their last 5 Championship games and only 3 in their last 5 away games. I would expect a defensive formation from Holloway; most likely 4-5-1 and QPR taking advantage of counter attack opportunities when Reading over commit or leave themselves open at the back.
Reading by contrast are flying at present, picking up 24 points from their last 10 games, only bettered by Brighton in the league. They boast an impressive 27 points from 36 available from home games all season and they have won their last 5 at the Madejski stadium (3 of those wins were by 2 goals or more) and 4 of those they were winning by half time.
Taking a look at their form against lower ranked teams Reading have won 8 of their 10 games against the current bottom 8, drawing one (away at QPR) and losing away to Wolves. Looking at the HT scores I found that Reading have been leading at half-time in 7 of their 12 home games (5 of which were 1-0 at HT) and QPR have been losing at half-time in 7 of their 12 away games (all of which were 1-0 at HT).
I like the look of a straightforward home win here, however the 1.91 on offer isn't overly appealing and I think we can find more value in some other markets. I much prefer the look of Reading HT/FT priced at 3.1 with coral. I also like the look of a 1-0 HT score which is 4.1 with betstars. As a final bet if you're really desperate I like the value of a 3-0 home win priced at 17 again with betstars (I think this presents much better value than the 2.64 on offer for reading -1 AH, but thats a personal opinion and you can feel free to decide which bet you like for yourself).