A LEAGUE TWO THRILLER

1pt O2.5 Mansfield v Colchester @ 2.36 Marathon Bet

Last year Mansfield were dominant at home, losing only three games, scoring 42 goals in the process, writes ALEX EVERSON, who made a winning debut at Evens in the Blackpool v Portsmouth game.

The average goals per game at Field Mill was 2.96. 52% of all league games went over 2.5 goals, with 43% going over 3.5.

Colchester, last season, were a mid table side, finishing 13th. Their away matches had a total of 52 goals in 23 games, an average of 2.26. Although this is a low total, 48% of their matches went over 2.5 goals. 

When we aggregate this with Mansfield O2.5 from last year, we have a 50% hit rate on O2.5 goals, yet we are being offered 2.36 representing only a 42.3% chance on this landing, showing we should have some value.

This season so far, Mansfield have blown sides away going forwards, scoring 11 goals in 3 games (Including a 6-1 win against newly promoted Accrington Stanley in the EFL Cup). The price we are being offered suggests that Colchester are a defensive side. They have kept 2 clean sheets in their league games so far. They have given up 8 shots in both games (Away to Notts County and home to Port Vale). They have only had 3 shots on target against them though - though we think the chances of this changing v Mansfield represents value at the price.

Mansfield have registered 25 shots across their two league games (9 on target)  following that up with 16 against Accrington (10 on target) in the EFL Cup. There is no reason to suggest they cannot continue this chance creation at home v a mid table side.

Up front for Mansfield is Danny Rose, a striker who jointly topped the clubs goalscoring charts last year with 14. Szmodics, who scored 10 last season for Colchester will be hoping to score from his attacking midfield role.

Colchester also playing their number 2 -Dillion Barnes- from last year in goal now because of losing Sam Walker to Reading. Barnes was in fact was on loan in the conf south last season to Welling and Hemel.